Most Resilient U.S. Real Estate Markets – 2007

The differences between a V-shaped market and a U-shaped one has to do with barriers to growth. High vacancy rates and high investor share can hurt a market, but if the local economy remains strong and housing stock affordable it’s only a matter of how long it takes to absorb the excess inventory.

Tampa is a perfect candidate for a V-shaped recovery, according to research from Moody’s Economy.com, an economic analysis, forecasting and credit risk firm. The local economy remains strong, and subprime lending is relatively low. Tampa’s problem? A high investor share that lead to high vacancy rates. When the market turned sour in 2005, more than 25% of Tampa homes were owned as investment properties. Investors are quicker to flee during a downturn, thus creating a glut of available housing stock. In Tampa’s case, vacancy rates now stand at 3.5%.

“As investors exit, the market revives,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at West Chester, Pa.-based research firm Moody’s Economy.com, as fewer speculative buyers results in a more stable market. “Tampa’s a pretty affordable market and first-time buyers can come in once prices fall.”

Like Tampa, Phoenix is similarly afflicted by high investor share (26.1%) and it has a vacancy rate over 3%. Good affordability rates and a surging job market suggest that once Phoenix bottoms out, price growth will be strong. Moody’s projection model has Phoenix reaching its price trough in the fourth quarter of 2008 and then growing by 7.7% the following year.

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