Phoenix and Tucson connecting is no surprise. But for the first time, planners say the Valley’s population could head north through high desert, national forests and mountains to Prescott.
It’s not an easy path. There are many roadblocks to growth toward Prescott or even deep into Yavapai County.
• In the far north Valley, much of the land is federal and may never be developed. Other big swaths are state-owned and could take years to plan and sell. The Arizona State Land Department doesn’t have the resources to plan and sell its land ahead of the state’s fast-moving growth.
• Water resources are limited and could impede the Valley’s growth into Yavapai County.
• Then there’s transportation. Traffic along Interstate 17, the freeway connecting Phoenix north to Flagstaff, is bumper-to-bumper most days.
A merger between Phoenix and Tucson is the more obvious and easier growth pattern, since the land between the state’s two biggest metropolitan areas is flat farmland that is easy to build on.
Still, the Valley is expected to stretch from Prescott, 85 miles north of Phoenix, all the way south to the Mexico border as early as 2040.
The area already has garnered the designation of a megapolitan or “super-sized” metropolitan area. Urban researchers call it the “Arizona Sun Corridor” and rank it as one of the next 10 big U.S. growth hubs. That designation will help it get more growth funding and planning assistance from the federal government.
The metropolitan areas of Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott together have a population of about 5 million, a figure expected to double by 2010.
The Prescott area, which includes the towns Prescott Valley and Chino Valley, is the smallest of the areas but growing rapidly. Prescott’s population has climbed from 9,000 in 1990 to about 38,000. Economists predict it could have as many as 80,000 residents by 2025.
Developer Del Webb launched the Valley’s growth to the north in the mid-1990s with its Anthem project on the border of New River. Since then, more than 9,000 homes have gone up in the 6,000-acre development, which is more than 35 miles from downtown Phoenix.
Several big developers followed Del Webb when it went north, filling in gaps between Anthem and Loop 101. Big employers such as military insurer USAA followed.
To the west of I-17, Peoria has annexed land into Yavapai County, the first Valley city to do so. Peoria is now bumping up to Lake Pleasant and Bureau of Land Management land.
It’s unlikely Peoria or Phoenix will grow farther north for a while because those blocks of BLM land are interlaced with huge parcels of state land around Lake Pleasant and north of New River.
The BLM is revamping its plan for more than 3 million acres of land, most of which lies between the Valley and Prescott. The land includes the Agua Fria National Monument and is home to endangered species such as the bald eagle.
More than 100,000 people are expected to move to the Valley each year for the next several years.
Growth that can’t go north will likely go west to the White Tanks and southeast to Pinal County. Those areas have transportation woes, but not as many land and water issues.
If the Valley doesn’t easily connect with Prescott as soon as it does Tucson, it likely won’t affect Arizona’s megapolitan status. That status is key to getting more government money for freeways and planning, which could help Yavapai County with some of its growth issues.
More than 200 million people, two-thirds of the U.S. population, currently live in the 10 megapolitan regions. The combined areas are projected to add 85 million people, 64 million jobs and $33 trillion in construction spending by 2040, according to Robert Lang, co-author of “Land Lines,” a 2005 report on megapolitan areas for the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
read more: Obstacles unlikely to stop sprawl to Prescott
